# Claim table — Antarctic ozone hole / Montreal Protocol / sea ice source card

| Claim / issue | Evidence label | Source trail |
|---|---|---|
| A springtime ozone hole over Antarctica was discovered in 1985. | Supported. | British Antarctic Survey history page; video transcript. |
| Montreal Protocol controls drove a major reduction in ozone-depleting substances. | Supported. | UNEP/WMO assessment summary; NOAA/NASA 2025 update; Montreal Protocol page. |
| The ozone layer is “fixed.” | Needs qualification. | Recovery is on track, but the Antarctic hole still forms each spring and recovery to 1980 values is projected around 2066 if policies hold. |
| The 2025 Antarctic ozone hole was small relative to the post-1992 recovery era. | Supported. | NOAA/NASA ranked 2025 fifth smallest since 1992, with an average 18.71 million km² depletion area during the peak season. |
| Antarctica is governed for peace and science rather than ordinary national ownership. | Mostly supported, with sovereignty nuance. | Antarctic Treaty preserves peaceful use, science cooperation and status quo over claims; it does not erase every asserted claim. |
| Recent Antarctic sea ice is concerning. | Supported with caution. | NSIDC: 2022–2025 are the four lowest annual minimums in the satellite record; 2025 maximum was third lowest. NSIDC also cautions the complete-record minimum trend is not statistically significant. |
| The lesson is that science plus treaty action can change planetary outcomes. | Editorial synthesis. | Supported by the ozone and treaty source trail; applied as Managing Expectations framing, not a new scientific measurement. |